January 03, 2008

My Political Focus Started 20 Years Ago

Though but a skinny weakling of a 5th grader in 1988, I remember the political horse race just about as clearly as I do that of the historic Oakland A's team who made headlines the same year. With tonight's results from the Iowa caucuses rolling in, I'm reminded of how I obsessed over the numbers back then as many are with those from today - and the 1988 race set the benchmark in my mind for how all presidential campaigns are measured.

To this day, I can tell you Alexander Haig dropped out of the Republican presidential race after getting 1% of the vote in the state. I can tell you how, on the Democratic side, Joseph Biden was forced to withdraw his candidacy following charges of plagiarism. (Trust me, not even Wikipedia has such obscure knowledge!)

As the 1988 campaign evolved, I pored over the results in the morning's newspaper, and stayed up late watching the news networks project the winners of each state, or in the case of Super Tuesday, several states at once. I openly mocked Michael Dukakis at my elementary school, and attended a rally in Redding, California for the eventual Republican nominee, George Bush Sr. While my political leanings have changed dramatically, and my focus on politics has been knocked down a few pegs, behind technology and sports, despite my Political Science degree, I still love the kickoff of primary season - and am rooting for some favorites, while finding disappointment in how well others are or aren't doing.

Tonight, it looks like Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama are to be the projected winners for their prospective parties. And while that's good news for both campaigns, Iowa is hardly representative of the much-larger states whose turn will soon come to post delegates themselves. After all, in 1988, Bob Dole captured the state, and falsely looked like he was to gain momentum against the sitting vice president. It would be eight years before he captured the party's nomination, and he never made it to the White House.

In effect, despite going first, Iowa is the exception. The outlier. I don't believe Hillary Clinton will battle for 3rd in New Hampshire, and I don't believe Huckabee's folksy approach will work well very often, outside of Middle America. And while I wouldn't personally vote for Mitt Romney, I hope he eventually does better than he did tonight. But as one pundit said on the radio this evening, tonight was the first pitch in the first inning of what will be a long game. You better believe I'll be watching. Without a sitting president or vice president in the contest, it's going to be an extremely interesting few months.

January 02, 2008

I Don't Care About Macworld This Year

It's January, and for most good Mac geeks like me, the initial post-holiday doldrums are immediately followed by anticipation of Apple's annual religious revival and trade show. Rumors typically fly fast and thick about what Steve Jobs will unveil. Live chats on multiple Web sites can slow servers and set traffic records. Spy photos are graded on their level of blurriness and new rumor sites can spring up on the strength of one good ruse.

But this year, I don't care.

You see, the story's changed. Apple used to make game-changing announcements at Macworld. Apple used to shock and surprise everybody at Macworld. And very often, I was left refreshing the Apple store online with credit card in hand.

But this year, I don't think that's going to happen.

You see, the story's changed. Apple is now making major game-changing announcements all year long. And they are no longer the underdog they once were - the little guy I could root for. Now, their market cap is three times that of Dell, and is just above that of Cisco. The big announcements, as far as I know, have already happened.

What could possibly take place to get me giddy? An iPhone update? Don't care. What about the second generation Apple TV? Don't care. The introduction of a new desktop application that runs Exchange? Maybe that would be interesting. An update to iPhoto that makes it go 20% faster. Please...

So... this year, I don't care.

The early comments about a tablet or a sub notebook or iTunes acting as a music label to sell its own songs aren't interesting. I already have a MacBook Pro. I already have an iPod Touch. I already have the first-gen Apple TV. And I already use iTunes for all my music downloads.

If they're finally getting around to movie rentals, then great. But that's in both the "obvious" and "about frickin' time" category. I won't be at Macworld this year, missing it for the 7th straight year, and while we'll be paying attention, we won't be expecting it to alter our life any.

Also See:
Macworld Expo Eve 2006
MacWorld San Francisco 2007 Eve

My Empty Stock Drawer

At the end of the calendar year, we have a little tradition when it comes to the stock market. Sell everything, and go completely into cash as the calendar switches from December 31 and starts again with January 1st. This year was no exception.

The reason behind my annual sell-off isn't the result of some chart-reading that tells me the market usually takes early January off (though sometimes it does). It also isn't because I have an innate need for a challenge, and see the move as starting the new year from scratch. Instead, it's simply that I do my own taxes every year, and don't want the hassle of tracking down individual trades that bridge a calendar year.

By making sure all my stock trades both begin and end in the same year, Intuit's TurboTax service can easily tabulate the gains and losses for each trade, and doesn't force me to dig through my eTrade records to see when a particular stock was purchased. Also, as I often buy and sell a single stock symbol multiple times in a year, I'm not left scratching my head and guessing where I should appropriately report I paid commissions. After all, if I have confusion, it's likely someone in the IRS will have confusion too, and might later ask me to clarify... leading to pain.

Clearing out my stock drawer (so to speak) also helps clarify what went well and what didn't over the year. There's no ambiguity as to whether one trade hasn't panned out yet or not.

So how'd we do?

IndexQ1Q2Q3Q4
Me+2%+4%+8%+35%
NASDAQ+<1%+8%+4%-2%


That looks pretty good on its face. We were up more than 50% on the year. But if I dig deeper, it's clear I could have done significantly better if I completely ditched my quick trade strategy and had instead put all my money into Apple and slept on it.

IndexQ1Q2Q3Q4
Me+2%+4%+8%+35%
AAPL+8%+31%+26%+29%


Being such an Apple guy, you'd think I'd have done the right thing, the smart thing, and given all I had to Cupertino. But I didn't. And while others have no doubt made out like bandits, I've ended up looking pretty silly, as the Mac and iPod maker more than doubled its market cap on the year.

I think a lot of people are looking pretty silly when it comes to AAPL. Even the most aggressive, pro-Mac guys, like me, couldn't have anticipated the kind of success Steve Jobs and team have delivered. But now, with Macworld approaching, and having cash on hand, maybe, just maybe, I'll do my part, and get back in the game. If I do, I promise I'll let you know.

Also See:

2005 Taxes in the Bag
The Stock Market Is Bleeding Us Dry
I Bet Wrong On AAPL, Again
Apple Stock Pays for AppleTV, New Airport Extreme
Taxes Completed Online, As Always
Top Eight Worst Stock Moves I Ever Made
Two Hours Of Apple Stock Plenty Profitable

January 01, 2008

State of the Blog: December 2007 Recap

December 2007 In Summary (Archive Page)

Total stories published to date: 1,129

Total stories published in December: 55
(About 1.8 per day, up from 1.1 in November)

Total stories in December with comments: 27
(49% of all stories, up from 16 and 47% in November)

Total comments on December posts: 85
(About 1.5 per post, 3 per commented post)

Technorati Authority Ranking: 126 (up 23)
Feedburner Peak in Month: 206 subscribers (up 25)
Feedblitz E-mail Subscribers: 15 subscribers (up 1)
MyBlogLog Members: 39 (up 4)

Monthly Traffic Rank in Last 12: 1st overall, and a new record!

Blog Value Estimator: $71,132.04


December hit new highs, pushed by an end-of-month spike.

Top Five Most Visited December Stories (According to Analog)

1. I Have Seen the Future of Social RSS Feed Readers
2. Feedheads Approaching 10,000 Active Facebook Users
3. Google Reader Blinks, and the Mob Wins
4. The Web Advertising Bubble Has Got to Pop
5. AideRSS Judges Feed Posts as Good, Great, Best

Others receiving votes: What I'm Reading and Sharing on Google Reader, Doubling Down On Our TiVo Obsession, 10 Predictions for 2008 In the World of Tech, and Buy Your Favorite Bloggers a Gift this Holiday...

Top Five Visited Archive Stories (According to Analog)

1. Soft-Core Porn, Sex Themes Power Google Video
2. Eight Reasons the Apple TV is Failing, and How It Can be Saved
3. Internal Linking On Some Tech Blogs Is Out of Control
4. eBay Locks Me Out for My Own Good
5. 10 Suggestions to Improve Google Reader

After November's ho-hum showing, December was a record-breaker of sorts for us, returning to the momentum we've been building up all year. Not only did we have the strongest numbers of total visitors and page views on record in December, but we had a high amount of interactivity, from good comments, to a good amount of posts being sent to StumbleUpon, or added to Del.icio.us. We've been relatively Digg-free since April, but won't be holding our breath to see that change. Also, the last five days were all extremely strong traffic-wise, with Monday being in the top five days for total traffic all-time. Not bad. Of course, with this under our belt, we're starting 2008 at zero again, and look forward to setting and achieving new goals.

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