Cross-posted to Athletics Nation...Being a partial season ticket holder this year, I've endured too many losses seemingly every Friday, Saturday and the occasional Sunday. It got me thinking... am I seeing my unfair share of losses, when compared to other days during the week? And do the A's play better on Saturday night 6:05 starts than 1:05 starts here in Oakland? So I broke out the Excel sheet. Could the results be coincidence, small sample size, or are the numbers telling us something?
-- ALL Stats Current as of Sunday's Win vs. Kansas City --
First Up: Weekdays.
After crunching the numbers, I was right about one thing. The A's do much better during the week than they do on the weekends. In fact, during the relative low-pressure Tuesdays and Wednesdays, the 2007 A's win at a 57.9% and 63.2% clip, respectively. Given the team's sub-.500 record, it's no surprise that's above everything else. In fact, the team only wins 35% of Saturday contests and 40% of Sunday games overall. (See below chart)
Next up: Day games vs. Night games.
It turns out the A's only win just under 49% of day games and just under 49% of night games, so that tells us a whole lot of nothing. But if you drill down on a day by day comparison, some jump out at you, and I'm not talking about the fact that Sunday night games and Monday and Friday day games don't exist. Instead, you can see that on Saturdays, the team wins less than 43% of day games, and only 23% of night games, a total not helped by their woeful 0-7 record away from Oakland on Saturday night. That's right, 0-7. In fact, to my surprise, the team both wins and loses an equal amount of games at home on Saturdays, so I've got little to whine about there.
(Also: Don't get thrown by the fact the team won their only Tuesday day game on the road. 1 for 1 does not a sample size make)
Next up: Home games vs. Road games.
We already talked about how much the A's love playing at home on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, where they've won 14 of 21 contests, good for a 66.7% winning percentage. But did you have any idea that Thursdays on the road were just as nice? Okay, so it's only 4 out of 6 games won, but you're not going to get those numbers anywhere else. (That might also explain why the A's seem to do well mid-week and get us excited, only to then fade on the weekend)
Putting it all together: Home vs. Road vs. Weekdays vs. Day vs. Night
Again, throw out the one Tuesday day game. That's an anomaly. What we see is that on Wednesday, the A's play great at home during the day and great on the road at night. On Friday/Saturday/Sunday, you may as well flip a coin to see if the A's will do well, unless it's Saturday night and they're on the road. That's a guaranteed loss.
If you want to poke holes in the data, love ones and zeroes, or just want to get your inner geek on, please do download the full Excel file and give us some new reports. But until then, I'm going to go to Vegas and put my home mortgage against the A's when they play on the road Saturday nights. And I've GOT to start attending Wednesday day games instead. Dollar Dogs, right?